Bitcoin has lost three-quarters of its all-time-high value. Some other cryptocurrencies fared even worse, providing millions of crypto-skeptics with an opportunity to gleefully post “I told you so!” messages on their social channels.
Their satisfaction stems from the frustration of missing out on the crypto gold rush in which the early adopters made truckloads of money. For example, last year, the 10,000 Bitcoins that paid for two pizzas in 2010 reached a $680M value and the net worth of the founder of Binance crypto exchange exceeded $96B. Yet, neither the “invest in crypto!”, nor the “never invest in crypto!” mantras are wise; smart investors know that the best approach is “invest in crypto when the time is right.” And the right time is now, while the crisis still lasts.
Extreme volatility has always been the inevitable feature of Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies backed by no assets, so the current meltdown of their value is nothing new. In 2018, Bitcoin reached the $19,783/coin price, then plunged to less than $3,300/coin, an even sharper drop than the one that has occurred over the last six months. Those who bought Bitcoins at the peak then sold them at the bottom lost a lot. Those who bought Bitcoins at about $3,300 enjoyed the wild ride to over $64,800, a return of about 2,000%.
Now that Bitcoin price is yet again a small fraction of its past high values, “it has nowhere to go but up!” I’m sure that it will recover its recent losses and exceed $100K per coin pricing, but there are a few important clarifications I must add to my prognosis.
First of all, I have no financial reason to promote Bitcoin. In fact, earlier this year, I introduced our Unicoin as the superior cryptocurrency: equity-backed and dividend-paying.
Second, before eventually going up, Bitcoin may still go lower. Bitcoin has stabilized at just over $20K per coin now, but nobody can be certain what would be Bitcoin’s new bottom before its next rally.
Third, Bitcoin’s recovery is likely to take about three years – investors don’t easily forgive 75% drops in value.
Fourth, the “nowhere to go but up” logic cannot be applied to many other assetless cryptocurrencies which will burn out. “Doggy coins” like Dogecoin (92% down from an all-time high value) or Shiba Inu (86% down), created as jokes, are likely to be replaced by dividend-paying cryptocurrencies backed by valuable assets.
Bitcoin’s growth is expected because it’s the only household name on the cryptocurrency market which is likely to grow over 3,000%, for current valuation on slightly less than $1T, to $30T, or one third of the $90T combined valuation of fiat currencies. Crypto is a superior technology for digital money, which is the predominant form of money today. Humans have evolved from using sea shells, gold and banknotes, to scanning their phones in stores or wiring money with a few keystrokes. Yet, while the fast growth of the cryptocurrency market appears to be all but guaranteed, the leaders of this market will change in the same manner as Facebook replaced MySpace or Google replaced Lycos and AltaVista.
Finally, despite my expectations of Bitcoin’s recovery, I don’t believe it’s the best investment opportunity in crypto. Created by an anonymous person to provide anonymity of financial transactions to those who had something to hide, Bitcoin is bound to lose its market share to cryptocurrencies which offer more sensible business models, including anti-volatility features and dividend allocations.
Just like the Dot-Com implosion of 2000 did not stop the dizzying rate of growth of the Internet, the current adjustment of the crypto market will only serve to replace the inefficient and outdated concepts with the new generation of cryptocurrencies.
Alex Konanykhin is the CEO of Unicoin, the first equity-backed, dividend-paying cryptocurrency. He’s also an Executive Producer of Unicorn Hunters, “the most iconic business series of recent times”, according to Forbes magazine.